BCP Council has a £38.2m gap for 2027/28 and a £32m+ overspend this year. What has been found so far, the council tax signal, and the dates to watch.

BCP Council needs to find £38.2m to balance its budget for 2027/28. It is also now heading for an overspend of more than £32m this year, up from the £27m it forecast in the summer.

Both figures are in the council’s latest Medium Term Financial Plan update, published on Friday 9 October. The report, by the council’s interim chief finance officer, calls the position “of a scale not previously experienced by BCP Council”. It says it is “a significant threat to the Council’s financial standing”.

The report goes to the Overview and Scrutiny Board on Monday 19 October at 6pm. It then goes to Cabinet on Wednesday 28 October.

Two different £38m figures

The council is talking about two separate sums of almost the same size. They are easy to mix up.

  • £38.2m is next year’s budget gap. That is the difference between what the council expects to spend in 2027/28 and the money it expects to have, after the savings it has already found.
  • £38m is the special needs debt the council keeps. The government has agreed to pay off 90% of BCP’s schools deficit for children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND), a grant of £161.85m. The remaining 10%, about £38m, stays with the council.

The council plans to pay the SEND share by selling land and buildings. The report says those sales are “currently predicted to be £17m short”.

Where the money is going

The council has “substantially rebased” its plan for the next three years. In plain terms, it has accepted that this year’s overspends will not go away.

Before savings, new cost pressures in 2027/28 add up to £70.3m. Children’s services account for £25.5m of that. The report says looking after children in care alone needs a recurring £20.1m more, “without assuming any further growth”.

Bar chart of new cost pressures BCP Council expects in 2027/28: children's services £25.5m, adult social care and wellbeing £24.1m, operations including parking income £16.1m, resources £4.6m. Total £70.3m. Savings identified so far £32.4m, leaving a gap of £38.2m.
Chart by The Bournemouth Post, from Table 3 of BCP Council's October 2026 Medium Term Financial Plan update.
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The other big pressures, from the same table:

  • Adult social care and wellbeing, £24.1m: more people needing care, more complex needs, and National Living Wage rises for care providers.
  • Operations, £16.1m: mostly income that is not arriving. The report has reset targets “to more realistic and achievable levels”. This year’s shortfalls were mainly parking and seafront income.
  • Resources, £4.6m: including £1.8m a year more for Microsoft licences.
  • Staff pay: a £7.3m provision for next year’s pay award. The report also says payroll costs rose “materially above previous planning assumptions” after the new pay and grading structure started in December 2025.

Against that, the council has identified £32.4m of savings, efficiencies and fee changes for 2027/28. Most of it, £17.5m, comes from the wellbeing directorate. The report does not list the individual savings. Cabinet is asked to note that “there is still much more to do”.

What the council says it is doing

In its release on Friday, the council said it has set up “a dedicated situation room” and is holding departmental “star chambers”. The report itself describes a “COBRA-style” recovery set-up with regular senior oversight.

Cllr Mike Cox, Cabinet member for finance, said: “BCP Council is dealing with a financial challenge on a scale it has not experienced before.” Cllr Cox added that “without lower forecast spending we would need to draw heavily on reserves or seek exceptional financial support from government”.

The council also says its government funding will fall by £15m in real terms by 2028/29.

On 20 August the council leader, Cllr Millie Earl, and chief executive Aidan Dunn wrote to two Secretaries of State asking the government to pay the last 10% of the SEND debt as well. The letter warns that the assets the council could sell “are often buildings valuable to our communities”. It names community centres and libraries. No reply is included in the papers.

The council tax signal

The report goes out of its way to compare council tax levels. It does not propose a figure, but it says the budget process “may include consideration of alternative council tax strategies”.

  • BCP’s own Band D charge for 2026/27 is £1,980.46.
  • Dorset Council’s is £2,205.90, which the report says is “over 11% higher”.
  • If BCP charged Dorset’s rate, the report says, it would raise about £34m a year more.
  • BCP is 1% below the average for unitary councils, worth about £3m a year.

The plan still assumes a 4.99% rise each year. On this year’s BCP Band D charge, 4.99% would be about £99. Going above 4.99% without a referendum needs government permission, which BCP asked for and got this year, when the rise was 6.74%.

If the budget cannot be balanced

The council must set a balanced budget and its council tax by 11 March 2027. In practice the report says the deadline is 1 March, so direct debits can be set up.

If it cannot balance the books, the chief finance officer would have to consider asking the government for exceptional financial support. If that were not sought or not given, the officer would be legally required to issue a section 114 notice. The report explains what that means: all spending stops except statutory duties and protecting vulnerable people, and full council has 21 days to agree a fix.

The report also says the council’s total reserves “are now insufficient” to cover both the SEND deficit and this year’s overspend. Its unearmarked (general) reserves stood at £29.3m on 31 March 2026.

What it means for you

  • Have your say. The council’s timetable puts a budget consultation from October to November 2026. It had not opened when we checked on 11 October: the council’s Have Your Say budget page still shows the 2026-27 exercise. We will link it when it opens.
  • Watch the meetings. Overview and Scrutiny Board, Monday 19 October, 6pm. Cabinet, Wednesday 28 October, 10.15am. Both meetings are held in public. The half-year spending figures go to Cabinet in November, and the final budget to full council in February.
  • Your bill. Nothing changes until April 2027. What you pay now, including the new town council charges, is on our council tax bands page.
  • Services you use. The report warns that next year’s budget is “likely to have a direct impact on the level of services delivered”. No cuts to named services are proposed in this report.
  • The SEND grant. The background is in BCP SEND plan approved: £161.85m grant. The report says payment is expected in November 2026.

Sources